China's Online Milk Powder Market Hits CN¥ 3.16B in Q1 2024

Newer data: China's Dairy Market: Online Sales Hit CN¥ 44.7B in 2025

Executive Summary#

China's online milk powder market reached CN¥ 3.16 billion in cumulative sales revenue during Q1 2024, and January alone grew 47.8% year-on-year (YoY), which set the pace for the quarter ^[1]. The main structural change is a widening gap between sub-categories built for a particular age group, which grew quickly, and the general adult segment, which was almost flat. China's population aged 60 and above reached 297 million by the end of 2023 ^[2], and that sustained demand shows up directly in the growth of senior milk powder. For brands evaluating China's dairy market, we believe the data shows that growth in Q1 2024 concentrated in segments where consumers pay for a specific function, while products sold on general nutrition grew far more slowly.

A Strong January, and the Usual Seasonal Pattern#

The quarter followed a familiar seasonal rhythm, with a higher peak than usual in January. Sales revenue that month reached CN¥ 1.35 billion across 9.63 million units, on the back of restocking after the New Year, Lunar New Year gifting and promotional campaigns. January's growth of 47.8% YoY was the standout figure of the quarter, well ahead of February's 3.7% and March's 12.4%.

Q1 2024 Online Milk Powder Market Monthly Sales Revenue and Volume#

February's trough of CN¥ 790 million coincided with the lull after Lunar New Year that most consumer categories go through, and although sales volume was roughly 45% lower than in January, the dip followed the established seasonal pattern. March recovered to CN¥ 1.02 billion as regular purchasing resumed.

Revenue and volume moved together across all three months, so average selling prices (ASP) held steady within a band of CN¥ 140-150. We read this as a sign that brands kept their premium positioning through the quieter February period, which is a positive signal for the health of the category.

Store Formats: Consumers Favour a Verified Source of Supply#

Sales in the quarter were spread across a range of store formats, from brand flagship stores and stores operated by the marketplaces themselves to third-party sellers and cross-border stores. Much of the quarter's milk powder was sold through brand flagship stores and stores run by the marketplaces themselves, which suggests that consumers buying dairy online value guaranteed logistics and authenticity.

Cross-border dairy commerce remains a niche channel, holding only a small share of the market, which underlines how much domestic distribution partnerships or bonded warehouse operations matter for brands that want to reach the larger domestic channels.

Sub-Category Divergence: Demographics Drive Growth#

The most significant finding from Q1 2024 is how differently the milk powder sub-categories grew. In that quarter the market behaved as four distinct segments, each driven by a different demographic group.

Q1 2024 Milk Powder Sub-Category Market Size and Growth Comparison#

Senior milk powder had the largest revenue base at CN¥ 882 million and grew 23.2% YoY, combining scale with strong growth, and we believe this makes it the most commercially significant opportunity in China's online milk powder market. Its growth reflects both the ageing of China's population and the increasing use of online shopping among older consumers.

Children's milk powder was second in revenue at CN¥ 818 million but grew fastest of the four, by 47.7% YoY. The distance between the growth of children's and adult milk powder (47.7% against 1.1%) shows how willing parents are to spend on nutrition designed for children, while general adult consumption has levelled off.

Adult milk powder generated CN¥ 633 million and grew only 1.1% YoY, which suggests the segment is saturated. Growth has moved towards more specialised products and left general adult positioning with limited returns. Student milk powder, the smallest sub-category at CN¥ 196 million, still grew 38.3% YoY, which points to an emerging niche driven by parents looking for supplemental nutrition for school-age children.

Key Takeaways#

• CN¥ 3.16 billion in cumulative online milk powder sales across 22.1 million units in Q1 2024, with January's growth of 47.8% YoY supported by Lunar New Year gifting demand and promotional campaigns.
• Children's milk powder grew fastest, by 47.7% YoY, while carrying the highest ASP of any sub-category at CN¥ 217, which suggests that premium pricing has not held back volume growth in this segment.
• Senior milk powder combines scale and growth at CN¥ 882 million and 23.2% YoY, which we believe makes it the most commercially attractive segment for new entrants.
• Adult milk powder grew only 1.1% YoY, which suggests that products positioned on general nutrition face pressure to compete on price as consumers move towards products made for a particular age group.

About the Data#

This analysis draws on Moojing Market Intelligence's e-commerce data, covering SKU-level sales revenue, volume and pricing across three of China's largest marketplaces for Q1 2024 (January to March 2024). It includes their brand flagship stores, marketplace-operated stores, third-party sellers and cross-border stores. Data is aggregated from daily transaction-level records and reported at the monthly and quarterly level. For the complete dataset, including channel breakdowns, product rankings and the analysis of UHT milk and cheese, download the full report.

Data source: Moojing Market Intelligence