China's Adult Milk Powder Market: CN¥ 9.18bn Online Sales in 2023

Executive Summary

China's adult milk powder market generated CN¥ 9.18bn in combined online sales across Taotian (淘天), JD.com (京东), and Douyin (抖音) in 2023 — up +16.1% year-on-year (YoY) — as the category absorbed growth vacated by a contracting infant formula segment. Euromonitor projects the total market (including offline channels) will reach CN¥ 24.82bn by 2026. The top-five brand concentration ratio (CR5) fell to 45.5% as more than 2,400 active brands compete for share, and the elderly milk powder sub-category delivered the period's standout performance at +53.0% YoY growth.

A Decade of Unbroken Growth

China's adult milk powder market has posted unbroken growth for a decade. The structural driver is demographic: as the national birth rate declines and the population ages rapidly, the adult milk powder category has emerged as the strategic "second growth curve" for China's major dairy brands — filling the gap left by a contracting infant formula market.

The online market alone reached CN¥ 9.18bn in 2023. The broader industry, which includes offline supermarkets, hypermarkets, and specialty stores, is substantially larger. Euromonitor projects total market value will reach CN¥ 24.82bn by 2026, reflecting a compound growth trajectory that has remained largely undisturbed since 2016.

The 2020 spike in growth (+44.3% YoY) reflected pandemic-driven pantry-stocking and heightened health consciousness. The moderate growth of 2021–2022 (+3.0% and +7.3% respectively) represented demand normalization. The strong rebound in 2023 to +16.1% YoY demonstrates the market's underlying resilience and the enduring consumer appeal of adult nutrition products.

Adult milk powder market will reach CN¥ 24.82bn by 2026E (Euromonitor)

Platform Structure: Taotian, JD.com, and the Rise of Douyin

Online channels account for 25.3% of total adult milk powder sales, with the three major e-commerce platforms serving as the primary competitive battleground. Taotian (淘天 — the merged Taobao/淘宝 and Tmall/天猫 ecosystem) holds the largest online share at 52.4%, followed by JD.com (京东) at 37.3%. Douyin (抖音) gained ground in 2023, rising from 8.5% to 10.3% of the online channel mix — representing the most significant structural shift in platform composition during the period.

Taotian holds 52% online share as Douyin gains ground in 2023

Price Premiumisation Accelerates

The adult milk powder market is experiencing clear premiumisation, with the middle and upper price tiers gaining share at the expense of the sub-CN¥ 200 mainstream. The CN¥ 300–400 price tier nearly doubled its share, from 6.7% in 2022 to 11.9% in 2023 — the most dramatic single-tier shift in the 2021–2023 tracking period — while the CN¥ 400–500 tier more than doubled from 2.2% to 4.7%.

CN¥ 200–500 tier gains share as premiumisation accelerates

Brand Landscape: Fragmentation and the CR5 Decline

The adult milk powder competitive landscape is fragmenting at pace. The five-firm concentration ratio (CR5) declined to 45.5% in 2023, down from 50.0% in 2022 — the most significant single-year drop in the 2019–2023 tracking period. With over 2,400 active brands now competing in the space, demand is dispersing across a broad long tail.

Top 5 Brand Performance 2023

Despite posting sales growth, every top-5 brand simultaneously lost market share — confirming that mid-tier and challenger brands are collectively outgrowing the market leaders. Key observations from the 2023 brand landscape:

• Yili retains the #1 position (14.6% share) but has been unable to prevent share erosion as smaller brands proliferate across all three sub-categories.
• Nestlé rose two positions to #2 with the strongest growth among the top five (+15.5% YoY), benefiting from high-profile celebrity marketing including a Weibo Mother's Day campaign that generated outsized engagement.
• Devondale was the only top-5 brand with declining sales (−6.6% YoY), falling two positions as competition intensified in the family segment.
• Btnature, an Australian cross-border brand, surged to the top five with +98.2% YoY growth — demonstrating that international provenance and channel-native distribution can enable rapid share capture.

The elderly milk powder sub-category was the period's defining story: +53.0% YoY growth expanded its share from 29.9% to 39.4% of the adult milk powder market in a single year. This surge is driven not only by demographics but by younger consumers (the 21–35 age cohort) actively purchasing health products for their aging parents — a gifting-oriented demand model with distinct packaging, channel, and messaging implications.

Key Takeaways

• CN¥ 9.18bn in online sales in 2023 (+16.1% YoY); total market projected to reach CN¥ 24.82bn by 2026 (Euromonitor).
• Elderly milk powder grew +53.0% YoY, expanding its share from 29.9% to 39.4% — the defining structural shift of the period.
• CR5 fell to 45.5% (from 50.0% in 2022) as 2,400+ active brands fragment demand; every top-5 brand lost share despite posting sales growth.
• Douyin's platform share grew from 8.5% to 10.3% in 2023; Adopt-a-Cow's Douyin flagship reached CN¥ 110M, validating the social commerce channel for premium dairy.
• Premiumisation is accelerating: the CN¥ 300–400 price tier nearly doubled its share (6.7% → 11.9%), and average unit prices rose ~CN¥ 20–30 over the 2021–2023 period.

About the Data

This analysis draws on Moojing Market Intelligence's proprietary e-commerce tracking and social media listening platform. E-commerce data covers Taobao/Tmall (淘天), JD.com (京东), and Douyin (抖音). Sales tracking period: January 2021 – December 2023. Market size projections sourced from Euromonitor International. Brand review analysis based on approximately 30,000 Yili and 6,000 Adopt-a-Cow product reviews sampled from Tmall and JD.com.

Source: Moojing Market Intelligence