China's Adult Milk Powder Market: CN¥ 9.18bn Online Sales in 2023

Executive Summary#

China's adult milk powder market generated CN¥ 9.18bn in combined online sales across Taotian (淘天), JD.com (京东), and Douyin (抖音) in 2023 — up +16.1% year-on-year (YoY) — as the category absorbed growth vacated by a contracting infant formula segment. Euromonitor projects the total market (including offline channels) will reach CN¥ 24.82bn by 2026. The top-five brand concentration ratio (CR5) fell to 45.5% as more than 2,400 active brands compete for share, and the elderly milk powder sub-category delivered the period's standout performance at +53.0% YoY growth.

A Decade of Unbroken Growth#

China's adult milk powder market has posted unbroken growth for a decade. The structural driver is demographic: as the national birth rate declines and the population ages rapidly, the adult milk powder category has emerged as the strategic "second growth curve" for China's major dairy brands — filling the gap left by a contracting infant formula market.

The online market alone reached CN¥ 9.18bn in 2023. The broader industry, which includes offline supermarkets, hypermarkets, and specialty stores, is substantially larger. Euromonitor projects total market value will reach CN¥ 24.82bn by 2026, reflecting a compound growth trajectory that has remained largely undisturbed since 2016.

The 2020 spike in growth (+44.3% YoY) reflected pandemic-driven pantry-stocking and heightened health consciousness. The moderate growth of 2021–2022 (+3.0% and +7.3% respectively) represented demand normalization. The strong rebound in 2023 to +16.1% YoY demonstrates the market's underlying resilience and the enduring consumer appeal of adult nutrition products.

Adult milk powder market will reach CN¥ 24.82bn by 2026E (Euromonitor)

Platform Structure: Taotian, JD.com, and the Rise of Douyin#

Online channels account for 25.3% of total adult milk powder sales, with the three major e-commerce platforms serving as the primary competitive battleground. Taotian (淘天 — the merged Taobao/淘宝 and Tmall/天猫 ecosystem) holds the largest online share at 52.4%, followed by JD.com (京东) at 37.3%. Douyin (抖音) gained ground in 2023, rising from 8.5% to 10.3% of the online channel mix — representing the most significant structural shift in platform composition during the period.

Taotian holds 52% online share as Douyin gains ground in 2023

Price Premiumisation Accelerates#

The adult milk powder market is experiencing clear premiumisation, with the middle and upper price tiers gaining share at the expense of the sub-CN¥ 200 mainstream. The CN¥ 300–400 price tier nearly doubled its share, from 6.7% in 2022 to 11.9% in 2023 — the most dramatic single-tier shift in the 2021–2023 tracking period — while the CN¥ 400–500 tier more than doubled from 2.2% to 4.7%.

CN¥ 200–500 tier gains share as premiumisation accelerates

Brand Landscape: Fragmentation and the CR5 Decline#

The adult milk powder competitive landscape is fragmenting at pace. The five-firm concentration ratio (CR5) declined to 45.5% in 2023, down from 50.0% in 2022 — the most significant single-year drop in the 2019–2023 tracking period. With over 2,400 active brands now competing in the space, demand is dispersing across a broad long tail.

Top 5 Brand Performance 2023

Despite posting sales growth, every top-5 brand simultaneously lost market share — confirming that mid-tier and challenger brands are collectively outgrowing the market leaders. Key observations from the 2023 brand landscape:

• Yili retains the #1 position (14.6% share) but has been unable to prevent share erosion as smaller brands proliferate across all three sub-categories.
• Nestlé rose two positions to #2 with the strongest growth among the top five (+15.5% YoY), benefiting from high-profile celebrity marketing including a Weibo Mother's Day campaign that generated outsized engagement.
• Devondale was the only top-5 brand with declining sales (−6.6% YoY), falling two positions as competition intensified in the family segment.
• Btnature, an Australian cross-border brand, surged to the top five with +98.2% YoY growth — demonstrating that international provenance and channel-native distribution can enable rapid share capture.

The elderly milk powder sub-category was the period's defining story: +53.0% YoY growth expanded its share from 29.9% to 39.4% of the adult milk powder market in a single year. This surge is driven not only by demographics but by younger consumers (the 21–35 age cohort) actively purchasing health products for their aging parents — a gifting-oriented demand model with distinct packaging, channel, and messaging implications.

Key Takeaways#

• CN¥ 9.18bn in online sales in 2023 (+16.1% YoY); total market projected to reach CN¥ 24.82bn by 2026 (Euromonitor).
• Elderly milk powder grew +53.0% YoY, expanding its share from 29.9% to 39.4% — the defining structural shift of the period.
• CR5 fell to 45.5% (from 50.0% in 2022) as 2,400+ active brands fragment demand; every top-5 brand lost share despite posting sales growth.
• Douyin's platform share grew from 8.5% to 10.3% in 2023; Adopt-a-Cow's Douyin flagship reached CN¥ 110M, validating the social commerce channel for premium dairy.
• Premiumisation is accelerating: the CN¥ 300–400 price tier nearly doubled its share (6.7% → 11.9%), and average unit prices rose ~CN¥ 20–30 over the 2021–2023 period.

About the Data#

This analysis draws on Moojing Market Intelligence's proprietary e-commerce tracking and social media listening platform. E-commerce data covers Taobao/Tmall (淘天), JD.com (京东), and Douyin (抖音). Sales tracking period: January 2021 – December 2023. Market size projections sourced from Euromonitor International. Brand review analysis based on approximately 30,000 Yili and 6,000 Adopt-a-Cow product reviews sampled from Tmall and JD.com.

Source: Moojing Market Intelligence