China's Aging Population Reshapes the Milk Powder Market

Newer data: China's Dairy Market: Online Sales Hit CN¥ 44.7B in 2025

Executive Summary#

China's middle-aged and elderly milk powder segment grew 53.0% year-on-year (YoY) in 2023 to CN¥ 3.62 billion in online sales, which raised its share of adult milk powder sales from 27.6% in 2021 to 39.4% in 2023 ^[1]. This structural shift is changing how brands compete in adult milk powder, as growth moves from generic whole-family products toward formulations designed for a particular age group and a particular health need. We believe the data shows that, for brands evaluating China's dairy market, the aging population has become the main source of growth in adult milk powder.

A Two-Speed Market Emerges#

The adult milk powder market has split into two segments that are moving at different speeds. Middle-aged and elderly milk powder grew from CN¥ 2.04 billion in 2021 to CN¥ 3.62 billion in 2023, a cumulative rise of 77.6% in revenue and 55.9% in volume over two years. Volume rose from 15.5 million units to 24.1 million units, which shows that the growth reflects genuine demand and is not the result of higher prices alone.

Adult Milk Powder Segment Sales Revenue and Volume, 2021-2023#

Whole-family milk powder still had the largest revenue at CN¥ 5.22 billion in 2023, but grew only 0.4% YoY. Its volume fell from 48.1 million units in 2022 to 46.4 million units, so its flat revenue was held up by price increases alone. The women's milk powder segment was stable at approximately CN¥ 344 million with falling volume, and we believe it is an underexplored market with room for innovation.

If current growth rates continue, the middle-aged and elderly segment could account for more than 45% of adult milk powder sales by 2025, which would change the competitive position of the brands that sell in the category.

The Filial Piety Economy Fuels Demand#

The segment's growth reflects more than demographics alone. China's population aged 60 and above reached 297 million by the end of 2023 ^[2], which creates a large addressable market. The people who buy the product, however, are often a generation younger: younger consumers, particularly women aged 21-25, are the main buyers of elderly milk powder, and they buy it out of filial care for their parents. Social media data shows "parents" mentioned in 50.7% and "elders" in 28.3% of middle-aged and elderly milk powder discussions.

Adult Milk Powder Segment Sales Share Distribution, 2021-2023#

Because young buyers are purchasing for older family members, brands need messaging that appeals both to the gift buyer's wish to express care and to the end consumer's functional health needs. Chinese New Year and health-awareness months are the peak purchasing periods for this filial buying.

Market Fragmentation Creates Opportunity#

Rising competition is making the elderly segment less concentrated. Sales became more widely spread among brands between 2022 and 2023, as new brands were drawn in by the segment's 53% growth. We believe this leaves room for challenger brands with a clear proposition.

Nestle's Yiyang sub-brand shows how functional specificity can work in this segment, since it launched dedicated formulations for sleep support, blood sugar management and digestive comfort, each addressing a distinct health concern of older consumers.

Functional Innovation Drives Premiumization#

Nutritional composition was associated with CN¥ 7.83 billion in product sales, up 16.3% YoY, which shows that ingredients remain the largest product concept, while growth has moved toward more specific functional claims. Positioning based on usage scenarios grew 20.4%, as brands marketed milk powder for health routines and gifting occasions, and solubility concepts grew 259% from a small base, addressing the common complaint of powder that clumps or dissolves poorly.

The middle-aged and elderly segment over-indexes on usage scenario concepts (Target Group Index of 1.5), meaning elderly consumers are 50% more likely than average to be influenced by messaging built around a specific scenario. We believe brands that connect their products to concrete daily routines, such as morning nutrition, recovery after exercise and the hours before bed, will see stronger purchase intent than brands that rely on generic health claims.

There is also room for premiumization. Middle-aged and elderly milk powder's average selling price (ASP) of CN¥ 138 sits below children's milk powder at CN¥ 217, which suggests room for higher prices as functional formulations justify them. We believe brands that combine premium ingredients such as probiotics, A2 beta-casein and low-GI formulations with targeted health positioning can charge a clear premium over generic adult milk powder at CN¥ 127.

Key Takeaways#

• Middle-aged and elderly milk powder grew 53.0% YoY to CN¥ 3.62 billion, reaching 39.4% of adult milk powder sales in 2023
• Whole-family milk powder grew only 0.4% YoY with falling volume, which points to saturation in the undifferentiated adult segment
• Sales in the elderly segment became less concentrated among brands in 2023, which opens room for challenger brands
• Nestle's Yiyang sub-brand shows the value of functional specificity, with formulations for sleep support, sugar control and digestive comfort
• Because of filial purchasing, brands must address two audiences, the younger gift buyers and the older end consumers

About the Data#

This analysis is based on Moojing Market Intelligence data covering online transaction records across three of China's largest marketplaces from January 2021 to December 2023, supplemented with social media listening data from major e-commerce platforms.

^[1] Moojing Market Intelligence, China adult milk powder online sales data, January-December 2023.

^[2] National Bureau of Statistics, China Aging Population Report, 2023.