2024-05 Market Scan: China's Milk Powder Market Research for Devondale

Key Finding 1

China's adult milk powder market reached CN¥ 9.18 billion in online sales across Tmall/Taobao, JD.com, and Douyin in 2023, growing +16.1% year-over-year (YoY), driven by population aging, rising health awareness, and expanding e-commerce channel penetration.

The domestic adult milk powder market has grown steadily over recent years, with Euromonitor forecasting the total market (online and offline) to reach CN¥ 24.82 billion by 2026. Online channels now account for over 25% of total sales, with the Tmall/Taobao ecosystem capturing more than 50% of online market share. Douyin's share expanded from 8.5% in 2022 to 10.3% in 2023, signaling the platform's growing influence in the category. The market's primary sales peak coincides with Double 11 promotions, while Chinese New Year gift-giving scenarios have consistently boosted January sales over the past three years.

Key Finding 2

The middle-aged and elderly milk powder segment surged +53.0% YoY in 2023, expanding its share of the adult milk powder market from 27.6% in 2021 to 39.4% in 2023, as younger consumers increasingly purchase health-oriented products for their parents and elders.

This segment's rapid growth reflects China's demographic transition and the "filial piety economy" --- younger consumers spending on their aging parents' health. Nutritional composition and functional efficacy are the top purchasing considerations for middle-aged and elderly milk powder, with specific health claims around bone health (calcium supplementation), digestive wellness (probiotics), and blood sugar management (low-GI formulations) driving product innovation. Yili, Nestle, and Mengniu (蒙牛) dominate the segment with a combined 48.8% market share, though concentration is declining as new entrants fragment the market.

Key Finding 3

Devondale's online milk powder sales declined -43.01% YoY in 2023, with the brand's Tmall/Taobao channel contracting sharply from CN¥ 2.06 million to CN¥ 1.14 million, while consumer review analysis reveals a critical gap between what buyers value (flavor, dissolving performance) and what the brand communicates (origin, nutrition).

Competitive benchmarking reveals that all six brands analyzed --- Devondale (德运), Nestle, a2, Anchor (安佳), btnature, and Maxigenes (美可卓) --- share a common gap: consumers consistently rank flavor/taste and dissolving performance as their top purchase decision factors, yet brand marketing communications emphasize nutritional composition and origin. This disconnect presents an actionable opportunity for Devondale to differentiate by addressing taste and solubility expectations in both product development and marketing messaging.

Key Finding 4

Australian brand btnature achieved +79.03% YoY sales growth in 2023 through cross-border channel expansion and Xiaohongshu (小红书) content marketing, demonstrating that imported milk powder brands can scale rapidly in China by targeting health-conscious consumers with clean-label positioning.

Among the competitive set, btnature stands out as the fastest-growing brand, rising from the eighth-ranked position to fifth place with a +98.2% increase in broader adult milk powder market sales. The brand's "Blue Label" whole family nutrition milk powder and middle-aged/elderly products resonated with consumers seeking additive-free, naturally sourced options. Maxigenes, despite being the largest imported milk powder brand, experienced -6.6% sales decline, suggesting market share redistribution among foreign brands. For Devondale, btnature's growth trajectory offers a blueprint for leveraging cross-border channels and social media-driven brand awareness.