China Parent & Infant Market Q1 2024: What's Driving Growth
By Jessie Wang
8 min read
Executive Summary#
China's mother & baby online market recorded CN¥ 440.2 billion in Q1 2024 sales, broadly flat at -0.6% year-on-year (YoY). Beneath that total, the make-up of the category continued to change. Infant nutrition supplements grew fastest, at 16.5% YoY, and infant formula and baby diapers both grew by more than 9%. Mother & baby personal care grew 8.3% YoY, helped by the "refined parenting" approach that had become common among urban parents aged 26–35 by 2024. We believe three factors will support long-term demand from 2024: a rebound in births in the Dragon Year, the continuing move of purchases online and into content-led commerce, and rising spending per child, which is forecast to reach CN¥ 121,000 a year by 2026.
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A CN¥ 440 Billion Market Holds Steady as Its Structure Shifts#
China's mother & baby online market generated CN¥ 440.2 billion in Q1 2024 on approximately 500 million units sold. We believe the -0.6% YoY change in sales reflects the normalisation of inventory after excess production in 2023, together with consumers' sensitivity to price, more than any weakening of demand. Average prices fell approximately 18.2% YoY, and the brands that held their prices did so by differentiating their products instead of discounting for volume.
The channel mix matters more for the long term. Between 2016 and 2021, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of online sales was 21.6%, against 15.0% offline, and projections for 2021–2026 keep a similar gap, with online at 12.3% CAGR and offline at 7.8%. We believe this gap is structural, since the generation of parents that grew up online values the convenience, the product research and the social commerce that online channels offer.
Online vs. Offline Channel Growth Comparison#
| Channel | CAGR 2016–2021 | CAGR 2021–2026E |
|---|---|---|
| Online | 21.6% | 12.3% |
| Offline | 15.0% | 7.8% |
| Total | 16.7% | 9.2% |
Spending per child in China has also grown, from CN¥ 21,000 in 2016 to CN¥ 52,000 in 2021, and it is projected to reach CN¥ 121,000 by 2026, a CAGR of 18.4%. Young parents are spending more and spending earlier, and more of what they spend goes to premium and functional products. Although prices fell in Q1 2024, we believe the outlook for volumes and for consumer spending remains positive over a three-to-five-year horizon.
Sub-Categories: Functional Products Grow Fastest While Staples Hold Their Scale#
The mother & baby category spans essential products, such as formula and diapers, and premium or functional segments, such as nutrition supplements and personal care, and in Q1 2024 the functional products grew faster while the staples remained stable.
Infant nutrition supplements grew fastest, at +16.5% YoY, to CN¥ 27 billion in quarterly sales. We believe the growth is structural, as parents learn more about health, social media spreads information about scientific feeding, and new product formats that combine the appeal of a snack with functional nutrition widen the market.
Infant formula remains the largest sub-category at CN¥ 106 billion, and its +10.6% YoY growth is the first clear sign since the pandemic of a recovery in demand driven by births. Baby diapers were the second-largest sub-category at CN¥ 78 billion (+9.1% YoY). Mother & baby personal care grew 8.3% YoY, driven by the wider "refined parenting" (精细化养娃) trend, which has turned skincare and body care for babies from an optional purchase into a near-essential one.
Infant nutrition supplements lead growth; formula and diapers anchor category scale
Growth Concepts in Q1 2024#
Moojing Market Intelligence's cross-sector analysis identified six growth concepts within mother & baby in Q1 2024, led by casein and algae calcium at the premium end and by medical-grade diapers in volume.
Mother & Baby Q1 2024 Growth Concepts#
| Concept | GMV (CN¥ bn) | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Casein (酪蛋白) | 2.1 | 635.8% |
| Algae calcium (海藻钙) | 0.8 | 310.9% |
| ARA | 0.6 | 190.2% |
| Wearable bath towels | 0.1 | 85.3% |
| Medical-grade diapers | 1.3 | 45.1% |
| Cloth diapers | 0.0 | 33.5% |
Casein grew 635.8% to CN¥ 2.1 billion, which we believe shows a meaningful shift toward premium ingredients, as parents upgrade the formula and supplements they buy while their knowledge of nutrition grows. Algae calcium (+310.9% YoY) and ARA (+190.2% YoY) point to the same premiumisation of infant nutrition ingredients, where sustainable sourcing and better bioavailability justify significant price premiums over conventional products. Medical-grade diapers (+45.1% YoY) bring premiumisation to the category's core staple, applying the "refined parenting" approach to an everyday essential.
These high-growth concepts have one thing in common, which is that they meet infant development needs supported by science, in formats or with ingredients that conventional mass-market products do not serve well. Brands positioned in these premium niches benefit both from the growth of the market and from a position that mainstream competitors find harder to copy.
The 2024 Dragon Year and a Possible Recovery in Births#
China's birth rate reached a historic low of 6.39‰ in 2023, but several factors suggest that 2024 could see a meaningful recovery in births, with direct implications for the mother & baby sector over a one-to-three-year horizon.
Three drivers support a rebound in 2024:
- Pent-up demand from the pandemic years: birth plans put off during 2020–2022 are going ahead in 2024, which makes it a year of catch-up for families who delayed having children.
- Rising marriage registrations: marriage registrations in Q3 2023 totalled 5.69 million couples, up 245,000 YoY, which is a leading indicator for births in the near term.
- The cultural weight of the Dragon Year: births in a Dragon Year carry deep symbolic meaning in Chinese culture and have historically produced a consistent and commercially significant rise in births, as parents who hope their children will "become a dragon" bring their plans forward.
Policy support has also strengthened. The three-child policy introduced in May 2021, together with support for housing, education and childcare, lowers the barriers for families considering a second or third child. While policy alone cannot reverse a demographic decline, it provides a financial and social environment that is more supportive of having children than in earlier years of the decade.
For the mother & baby market, the expected rise in births in 2024–2025 means near-term support for sales volumes of formula and diapers, and longer-term demand for developmental and functional products as the new cohort of children reaches the age for supplements.
China's Macro Context in Q1 2024: A Gradual Recovery#
China's economy recovered gradually in Q1 2024, with clear differences between sectors. Per capita disposable income and consumption expenditure improved modestly, supported by a recovery in spending on services, and the Qingming holiday in 2024 recorded 119 million domestic trips, +11.5% vs. 2019, with tourism revenue of CN¥ 53.95 billion (+12.7% vs. 2019).
Online retail's share of total retail consumption reached 24.2%, which we believe is close to its ceiling for the near term. Growth varied widely between categories of goods, with communications equipment at +13.2%, tobacco and alcohol at +12.5% YoY and food and beverages at +9.6%, while sales of cultural and office supplies fell 8.0%. We believe mother & baby products are partly protected from the wider softness in goods consumption because they match the priorities of China's urban consumers aged 26–35, who put food, health and parenting first.
Food & beverages and tobacco & alcohol lead Q1 2024 retail growth
Key Takeaways#
- China's mother & baby online market recorded CN¥ 440.2 billion in Q1 2024, essentially flat at -0.6% YoY, which we believe reflects inventory normalisation more than weaker underlying demand.
- Infant nutrition supplements grew 16.5% YoY to CN¥ 27 billion, the fastest of the sub-categories, while infant formula reached CN¥ 106 billion (+10.6% YoY) and baby diapers CN¥ 78 billion (+9.1% YoY).
- Annual spending per child is projected to reach CN¥ 121,000 by 2026, up from CN¥ 52,000 in 2021, which supports premiumisation across the mother & baby sub-categories.
- The Dragon Year, rising marriage registrations (+245,000 YoY in Q3 2023) and pent-up demand from the pandemic years together support a rebound in births in 2024.
- High-growth concepts such as casein (+635.8%), algae calcium (+310.9%) and medical-grade diapers (+45.1%) show that premiumisation is the main strategic direction for the category in Q1 2024.
About the Data#
This analysis is based on Moojing Market Intelligence (魔镜洞察) proprietary data covering China's mother & baby online market in Q1 2024 (January–March 2024) with year-on-year comparisons to Q1 2023. Market data covers several leading Chinese e-commerce marketplaces. Social media data is sourced from major Chinese social platforms. Macroeconomic context is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Civil Affairs. All figures are in Chinese Yuan (CN¥) and reflect online channels unless otherwise stated.
Moojing Market Intelligence analyses brand and category performance across major Chinese e-commerce platforms. For enquiries: info@moojing-global.com | moojing-global.com
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