Global Air Fryer Market 2023: Demand-Led Growth in Germany

Executive Summary#

Air fryer sales on a leading marketplace in each of the US, Germany and the Philippines passed CN¥ 4.1 billion ^[1] from January to November 2023, and sales value grew in all three markets. In Germany, sales volume grew almost as fast as sales value, which we believe shows that the growth there came mostly from more consumers buying air fryers, with prices rising only a little. In the US the category is established and its sales gather around two shopping events, while in the Philippines prices rose through the year and sales follow the marketplace's promotional calendar. We believe these differences in maturity, pricing and seasonality call for a separate strategy in each market.

A Category Built on Western Dietary Culture#

The air fryer's growth in Western markets rests on an established habit that it can replace, which is one of the strongest advantages a product category can have.

Food culture in Western markets gives fried dishes a central place. In the United States, fried chicken, French fries and hamburgers are dietary staples, and in Germany schnitzel and pommes frites play the same role. Deep fryers are common household appliances in these markets, and the air fryer enters as a healthier substitute that gives a similar texture with much less oil.

This "oil-free, low-oil" proposition, together with rising health awareness in developed economies, has made the air fryer one of the fastest-growing small kitchen appliance categories. For Chinese manufacturers considering overseas expansion, we believe the demand behind it is structural and will outlast any single promotion or season.

The main demand drivers in the three markets are these:

• Western dietary habits centred on fried foods create a large pool of households ready to switch
• Rising public health awareness speeds the move away from conventional deep frying
• Urban cooking trends favour compact, multi-function appliances that take up less kitchen space
• Growing e-commerce penetration in Europe and Southeast Asia widens the market that online sellers can reach

Germany: Growth Led by Demand#

Air fryer sales on a leading German marketplace grew strongly from January to November 2023. Because sales volume rose almost as fast as sales value, most of the expansion came from more consumers buying air fryers while prices rose only a little. We believe growth led by demand in this way is the most durable kind of market expansion.

Monthly sales show that the rise was lasting, since sales moved onto a higher level through the whole of 2023, which points to wider adoption of the category in German households, beyond the effect of any single promotion.

For manufacturers, we believe Germany and the wider European market offer a strong international opportunity in the air fryer category.

The US: An Established Market Shaped by Two Shopping Events#

The US is an established air fryer market, which adopted the category in large numbers during the pandemic years and has since grown at a steadier pace on a leading US marketplace. Sales volume rose faster than sales value as average prices eased slightly.

Seasonal patterns shape US demand, because monthly sales peak in July, around the marketplace's mid-year sales event, and again in November, around Black Friday, which sets a predictable cycle with two peaks a year. For a large group of US buyers, these two events are when the decision to buy an air fryer is made.

We believe the slight easing of average prices reflects a maturing category in which competition in the mid-range is increasing, while the premium end of the market continues to expand.

For manufacturers, the US market calls for inventory and marketing plans built around the two events, for products that stand out in a crowded mid-range, and for premium models timed for the fourth-quarter gifting season, when average prices rise.

The Philippines: Rising Prices and Promotion-Led Demand#

Air fryer sales value on a leading Philippine marketplace grew from January to November 2023, while unit volume was almost flat, so the growth came from consumers paying more for each air fryer. Average selling prices rose steeply between early 2023 and November.

Monthly sales show that Philippine demand is highly sensitive to promotions, with the largest peaks in May and June 2023, which coincided with the marketplace's "5.5" and "6.6" shopping festivals. These festivals concentrate purchases into short windows, so manufacturers need to position inventory in advance and plan marketing campaigns for each of them.

Strategy in the Philippines therefore has to follow the promotional calendar, and brands that miss the 5.5, 6.6, 9.9 and 11.11 events give up a large part of the year's sales opportunity.

Seasonal Profiles Call for a Strategy in Each Market#

The three markets have different seasonal demand profiles, and each has direct consequences for operations:

• The US: two peaks a year, around the marketplace's July sales event and Black Friday in November, which call for inventory built up in advance and marketing concentrated on those two windows.
• Germany: a steadily higher level of sales with no single large spike, which calls for consistent availability and steady marketing investment through the year in place of bursts around events.
• The Philippines: sharp spikes tied to the marketplace's promotional events (5.5, 6.6, 9.9, 11.11), which call for planning around the promotional calendar and active participation in the marketplace's deal programmes.

We believe a single inventory and marketing approach applied to all three markets would leave sales unrealised in at least two of them, so planning go-to-market for each market separately is a practical requirement.

Key Takeaways#

• Air fryer sales on a leading marketplace in each of the US, Germany and the Philippines passed CN¥ 4.1 billion from January to November 2023
• In Germany, sales volume grew almost as fast as sales value, which shows that growth there was led by consumer demand, with prices rising only a little
• The US is an established market, where sales peak in July and in November around Black Friday
• In the Philippines, sales value grew on almost flat unit volume as average selling prices rose steeply through 2023, and demand follows the marketplace's promotional calendar
• Each market calls for its own operational approach: plans built around two events in the US, steady availability through the year in Germany and close alignment with the promotional calendar in the Philippines

About the Data#

This analysis draws on Moojing Market Intelligence data covering January to November in 2022 and 2023.

Moojing analyses brand and category performance across leading marketplaces, and the data in this analysis covers one leading marketplace in each of the US, Germany and the Philippines. For full methodology and additional insights, see the complete Air Fryer Overseas Market whitepaper.