H2 2025 Report: China's Mid-Autumn & National Day Product Selection Trend Analysis

Key Finding 1

China's online mooncake market contracted for the third consecutive year, with Mid-Autumn 2024 sales declining -10.5% YoY to CN¥ 2.856 billion, yet two distinct growth pockets emerged: the ultra-premium segment (≥CN¥ 240) and loose/individual mooncakes.

Consumer fatigue with traditional gift box formats is structural. Gift boxes still command 86.4% of mooncake sales but declined -10.4% in both value and volume. By contrast, loose mooncakes — priced for daily consumption rather than gifting — bucked the trend with volume up +7.1% YoY. This divergence confirms that the Mid-Autumn mooncake occasion is splitting into two separate consumption modes: premium gifting (supported by luxury brands like Maxim's Cakes at average prices above CN¥ 250) and everyday snacking (driven by value brands such as Weizhiyuan at CN¥ 15.5 average price).

Brand innovation is rewriting the rankings. High-growth entrants such as Lao Tangzi (+430.6%), Amalee (+398%), and Zhixin Nainai (10x+) have found traction through a dual formula of functional health credentials (zero-sugar, buckwheat, bird's nest) combined with emotional storytelling (celebrity voice customization, traditional craftsmanship). Social media amplified these stories: mooncake buzz on mainstream platforms reached 18.4 million posts in 2024, up +25.6% YoY, with a single viral event — the "Meicheng mooncake incident" — driving Baidu News Index up +2,050% on Mid-Autumn Day. The lesson for brands is that earned media can now move mooncake categories faster than promotional spend.

Key Finding 2

Across China's online food & beverage landscape in Q3 2024, three categories outperformed: alcohol (+42.9% YoY), tea (+22.7%), and chilled dairy (+51.7%) — together providing the strongest Mid-Autumn seasonal lift in the food universe.

Alcohol's surge was led by baijiu (CN¥ 68.2 billion in Mid-Autumn sales, +50.6%), with international spirits and tonic wine adding premium breadth. The alcohol category continues to capture Mid-Autumn gifting intent more effectively than most food segments. Tea's outperformance was driven not by mainstream green tea but by premium niche variants — dried tangerine peel/citrus pu'er and yellow tea — reflecting consumers' appetite for regional specialty and wellness narratives.

Chilled dairy's breakout (+51.7% Mid-Autumn) is structural rather than promotional. Brands anchored on functional platforms (A2 protein: Yue Xian Huo +40.3%; high-protein 4.0: Meiri Xianyü +13.6%) are generating repeat purchase and advocacy independently of festival mechanics. Meanwhile, the instant drinks category is in transition: traditional formats (milk tea, lotus root powder) are declining while food-medicine homology instant powders (kudzu root, monkey head mushroom) are growing. Condiments show similar dynamics — the overall market fell -8.8% but health-oriented formats (zero-additive, regional specialty) are gaining share. For product selection, the imperative is to trade up within the right sub-segments rather than lead with the largest categories.

Key Finding 3

In non-food categories, government subsidy policy drove large home appliances +44% and tablets +88.6% during Mid-Autumn 2024, while the "sports triangle" — athletic shoes, sports bags, and sportswear — delivered +23.3% annual growth, confirming that health-oriented lifestyle spending is now a structural, year-round trend, not a seasonal spike.

Sports bags and hats grew +54.1% in Mid-Autumn and +20.8% annually, led by crossbody and tote bags (+70.4%) as "sportswear for everyday commuting" becomes the new consumer identity. Outdoor/travel products expanded +17.6% in Mid-Autumn, with domestic brands (Beixi, Kolon, Kailas) outpacing international incumbents through better value-for-money in hard-shell jackets and trail shoes.

In beauty/personal care, the story is polarization: contact lens care solutions (+41% Mid-Autumn, +13.3% annually) and essential personal care categories maintained strength, while high-priced beauty devices declined significantly. Consumers are rationalizing discretionary personal care spend but continue to invest in functional, high-frequency, health-adjacent products. For Mid-Autumn & National Day selection, the winning non-food formula is: core festival tech (tablets, smart devices) + lifestyle sports (sports bags, outdoor apparel) + high-value-for-money personal care essentials.