Mid-Autumn & National Day 2025: China's Festival Product Winners Across 15 Categories

Introduction#

China's Mid-Autumn and National Day festivals are the largest gift-buying and discretionary consumption window of the year. In H2 2025 we believe the categories that do best will be decided less by their size than by how well they fit four structural shifts: format rationalisation in mooncakes, health-driven premiumisation in beverages, the convergence of sport, outdoor and lifestyle in non-food, and faster spending on consumer electronics under government subsidies. Across the 15 categories analysed, Moojing Market Intelligence data from two leading Chinese marketplaces shows that the Q3 2024 food and beverage market grew only 1.2% YoY, well below the +4.7% of Q3 2023. Pockets of 40%+ growth emerged in alcohol, chilled dairy and some non-food segments. Brands and buyers who know which of these pockets to prioritise are in a much better position for the season.

China's two-festival season is made up of two distinct consumer moments. Mid-Autumn (中秋节), which falls in September, drives concentrated gifting of premium food and beverages, such as mooncakes, baijiu and specialty tea, alongside family reunion consumption. National Day Golden Week (October 1-7) turns toward travel, sports, electronics upgrades and larger household purchases. A well-planned H2 2025 product selection strategy treats the two festivals as separate demand windows while identifying the categories that perform in both.

The Mooncake Market: Pressure at the Category Level, Growth at the Edges#

The online mooncake market came under pressure in Q3 2024, at CN¥ 2.856 billion, for the third year in a row. Gift boxes, which still account for 86.4% of mooncake sales, came under pressure in both value and volume, and we believe consumer fatigue with obligatory gifting formats is structural.

The same data contains a counter-signal that defines the opportunity, since loose and individual mooncakes, sold for daily consumption in place of gifting, grew 7.1% in volume while the wider market was under pressure. The difference between format types is the clearest practical finding from the mooncake data. It shows that consumers' relationship with mooncakes is splitting into premium gifting, where luxury brands such as Maxim's Cakes sell at average prices above CN¥ 250, and everyday snacking, where value brands such as Weizhiyuan sell at an average price of CN¥ 15.5.

Brand strategies point the same way. Newer brands such as Lao Tangzi, Amalee and Zhixin Nainai have taken a two-part approach to their mooncakes, pairing functional health credentials (zero-sugar buckwheat, bird's nest) with emotional narratives (celebrity voice customisation, artisanal craftsmanship). Established mid-to-high-end brands also grew despite the pressure on the category when they communicated a clear product story. For 2025 selection, we believe the best mooncake portfolio has three tiers: ultra-premium gift boxes above CN¥ 240, health-oriented loose formats in the CN¥ 30-60 range, and a thin selection of mid-range branded boxes at CN¥ 60-100 for the remaining gift occasions.

The Beverage Breakouts: Alcohol +42.9%, Chilled Dairy +51.7%#

Within food and beverage, three categories grew in the festival period well above the market average, namely alcohol (+42.9% YoY in Q3 2024), tea (+22.7%) and chilled dairy (+51.7%). Together they make up the core gifting and family-occasion range for the 2025 Mid-Autumn season.

Baijiu (白酒) drove the growth in alcohol, with CN¥ 68.2 billion in Mid-Autumn period sales and growth of 50.6% YoY, which shows that premium spirits remain the main way Chinese consumers express gifting intent across the festival calendar. International spirits and tonic wine added premium breadth above baijiu's core. For product selection, we believe the priority is to lead with quality-tier baijiu and international spirits as the anchor gift categories, supported by premium specialty tea. In tea, dried tangerine peel or citrus pu'er and yellow tea grew much faster than mainstream green tea on the strength of their wellness narratives and regional provenance.

We believe chilled dairy's Mid-Autumn growth of 51.7% reflects more than promotion, since growth over MAT2025 (July 2024 to June 2025) held at +21%, which shows sustained consumer spending on fresh, functional dairy. The category is reorganising around health concepts, and A2 casein protein (as in Yue Xian Huo's range), high-protein 4.0 fresh milk (Meiri Xianyü) and zero-sucrose yogurt (Junlebao) are driving both volume and higher average prices. We believe these products belong in any festival merchandising plan, both as gifts and as upgrades for family meals.

Non-Food Winners: Sports Bags +54.1%, Tablets +88.6%#

The non-food categories show two sources of demand running in parallel during the festival window, with government policy accelerating spending on consumer electronics and structural health and lifestyle growth in sports and outdoor.

Large home appliances grew 44% in Mid-Autumn 2024, directly helped by government subsidy policy, and tablets grew 88.6% as spending on "large-screen home life" deepened. Both are festival-window amplifications of a trend that continues into National Day, in which consumers invest in better-quality households. For retailers and category managers, we believe tablets and smart devices belong in the high-priority National Day selection tier, positioned as household upgrades and anchor gifts.

Sports bags and hats grew 54.1% in Mid-Autumn and 20.8% over the year, which shows that the "sports triangle" of athletic shoes, sportswear and sports bags is now a structural, year-round trend and more than a seasonal spike. Crossbody and tote bags (+70.4%) are the fastest-growing sub-segment, driven by urban consumers who now wear sportswear for their everyday commute. Lululemon, Adidas's cloud bags and Arc'teryx's messenger bags are examples of the positioning that combines function with fashion.

Outdoor and travel products grew 17.6% in Mid-Autumn and 5.5% over the year. In outdoor apparel, brands such as Beixi, Kolon and Kailas compete on value for money in hard shell jackets and trail footwear. We believe the main theme for 2025 selection is professional outdoor function moving into everyday use, as outdoor gear is increasingly worn for the urban commute.

Strategic Implications for H2 2025#

The cross-category data suggests four strategic principles for buyers and brand managers going into the H2 2025 season.

First, look beneath the category average. The Q3 2024 food and beverage market grew only 1.2% overall, but growth within that average varied widely, up to +51.7% for chilled dairy. We therefore believe the choice of sub-category within each vertical will matter far more to results than the top-line category trend.

Second, lead with health positioning across all verticals. The consistent high-growth signals, among them A2 dairy, zero-sugar mooncakes, food-medicine homology instant drinks such as kudzu root powder and monkey head mushroom porridge, sleep gummies, konjac snacks and functional outdoor apparel, share one demand driver, which is that consumers are spending on products that set out a credible health or wellness benefit. We believe this has become the main driver of premiumisation across the Chinese consumer market and is no longer a niche trend.

Third, the timing of social media activity has a strong effect on mooncake sales. Mooncake discussion reached 18.4 million posts in 2024, up 25.6% YoY, and a single viral controversy on a short-video platform drove a news search index up 2,050% on Mid-Autumn day. Content and influencer campaigns need to be running by early September 2025 to benefit from the organic build-up on social media, and not only in the days just before the festival.

Fourth, the National Day window needs a different product selection from Mid-Autumn. Mid-Autumn centres on gift foods (mooncakes, baijiu, specialty tea, chilled dairy), while National Day centres on lifestyle and technology (tablets, sports bags, outdoor apparel, home appliances). We believe retailers who keep the two festivals distinct will do better than those who cover both with a single promotional plan.

Conclusion#

China's H2 2025 festival season offers growth that is selective but real in categories that have aligned with health credentials, format innovation or demand supported by government policy, and continued pressure on categories that depend on traditional gift-giving and undifferentiated positioning. We believe the online mooncake market will stay under pressure in 2025 unless brands move their inventory toward loose formats and premium-tier gift boxes. Beverages, chilled dairy and alcohol face the opposite problem, which is how to manage supply and merchandising priorities in a window where demand is highly concentrated. Sports and outdoor are the clearest examples among non-food categories of structural, multi-year growth, which the festival season amplifies. We believe the data from H2 2024 gives a sound basis for H2 2025 product selection decisions.